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RSSSIA predicts 2003 chip sales to reach $319 billion
November 2, 2000
Spurred by sales of communications solutions and continued strong demand for the personal computer, the global semiconductor industry will exceed $200 billion for the first time in 2000 and grow to $319 billion in the next three years, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association's (SIA; San Jose, CA) annual forecast. The SIA projected that global semiconductor sales would increase 37% this year to $205 billion, and grow 22% next year to $249 billion. The association predicts a pause as new capacity now under construction comes online in 2002, with only 10% growth that year.
Wilfred J. Corrigan, LSI Logic (Milpitas, CA) chairman and chief executive officer, said, "The PC is still a major growth driver, but for much of the industry there are faster growth opportunities associated with the new information-based economy." Corrigan delivered the annual forecast address at the SIA's 24th Annual Forecast and Award Dinner, held Wednesday in San Jose.
Semiconductor product categories that will directly benefit from the growth of wired and wireless applications include: flash memory, standard cell ASICs, digital signal processors (DSPs), programmable logic devices (PLDs), analog, and optoelectronics.
"Semiconductors are being used in an even greater variety of communications, Internet infrastructure, and handheld applications," said SIA president George Scalise. "While traditionally there have been two dominant markets around the world, in this forecast, we see a broadening of product demand coming from all geographic regions."
World markets
A decade ago, the two largest markets, the United States and Japan, made up approximately two-thirds of the global semiconductor market. Today, the two largest markets, the Americas and Asia-Pacific, comprise less than 60% of the worldwide chip market.
Americas market: The Americas market will increase 34% this year to $64 billion, 21% next year to $77 billion, 9% to $83 billion in 2002, and will increase 16% in 2003 to become a $96 billion market.
Europe market: The communications dominated Europe market will grow 33% this year to $42 billion, 21% next year to $51 billion, 10% in 2002 to $57 billion, and will grow 17% in 2003 to reach $66 billion.
Japan market: The Japan market will increase 42% this year to $46 billion, 22% next year to $56 billion; 10% in 2002 to $62 billion; and totaling $72 billion with 16% growth in 2003.
Asia Pacific market: This region will grow nearly 41% this year to $52 billion, 24% next year to $65 billion, 12% in 2003 to $72 billion, and $85 billion in 2003, an 18% increase.
Semiconductor product categories
Optoelectronics: The optoelectronics market, which includes laser devices and image sensors, is directly tied to Internet bandwidth. This market will grow 68% this year to $10 billion, 30% next year reaching $13 billion, 19% in 2002 to $15 billion, and in 2003, grow 28% to $19 billion.
Logic: The $34 billion global logic market, which is being driven primarily by communications, will grow 48% this year. This market will grow 26% next year, to $43 billion, 13% in 2002 to $49 billion, 13% to $56 billion in 2003. The logic market - standard cell, gate arrays, and PLDs - will grow at a 17% compound annual growth rate during the next three years.
Microcontrollers: Digital signal processors (DSPs) are one of the fastest growing segments of the global microcontroller market. The SIA expects the microcontroller segment to grow 48% to $6 billion this year, 33% next year, 22% in 2002, and 28% to $13 billion in 2003. The microcontroller market is expected to grow 35% this year to $19 billion, 25% next year to $24 billion, 13% to $27 billion in 2002, and in 2003, grow 29%, increasing sales to $34 billion.
Flash memory: Flash memory devices are key components for wireless handsets, digital imaging, GPS systems and other applications. The flash memory sector will more than double in three years, growing an incredible 130% this year to $10 billion, 44% next year to $15 billion, 21% in 2002 to $18 billion, and increasing 24% to $23 billion in 2003.
Analog: The $31 billion global analog market, a key component for telecommunications, will grow in-line with the industry during the next three years. The sector will increase 39% this year, 20% in 2001 to $37 billion, 10% in 2002 to $40 billion, and increase 15% to $47 billion in 2003.
Microprocessors: Microprocessors, most frequently found in personal computers and embedded applications, will grow 11% this year to $30 billion, 6% in 2001 to $32 billion, 11% in 2002 reaching $35 billion, and in 2003, increase 10% to become a $39 billion market.
DRAM: The $31 billion global DRAM market will demonstrate its historical volatility during the next three years. The DRAM market will grow 48% this year, 34% next year to $41 billion, 5% in 2002 for a total of $43 billion, and 21% to $52 billion in 2003.
Discretes: Discrete components will grow 31% this year to $18 billion. The worldwide discrete market, which includes diodes, power transistors, rectifiers, thyristors and other discrete categories, will grow to 13% next year to $20 billion, 4% in 2002 to $21 billion, and increase 7% in 2003 for a $22 billion discretes market.
Edited by Katherine Derbyshire
Managing Editor, Semiconductor Online
For more information contact Semiconductor Industry Association, 181 Metro Drive, Suite 450, San Jose, CA 95110. Tel: 408-436-6600; Fax: 408-436-6646.
